The Logic of Inference: The Science of Uncertainty

All models are wrong. Some models are useful.

—George E. P. Box (1919–2013)

Statistician

Describing and explaining social phenomena is a complex task. Box’s quote speaks to the point that it is a near impossible undertaking to fully explain such systems—physical or social—using a set of models. Yet even though these models contain some error, the models nevertheless assist with illuminating how the world works and advancing social change.

The competent quantitative researcher understands the balance between making statements related to theoretical understanding of relationships and recognizing that our social systems are of such complexity that we will always have some error. The key, for the rigorous researcher, is recognizing and mitigating the error as much as possible.

As a graduate student and consumer of research, you must recognize the error that might be present within your research and the research of others.

Assignment Task Part 1 Directions :

Use the Walden Library Course Guide and Assignment Help found in this week’s Learning Resources to search for and select a quantitative article that interests you and that has social change implications.

As you read the article, reflect on George Box’s quote in the introduction for this Discussion.

For additional support, review the Skill Builder: Independent and Dependent Variables, which you can find by navigating back to your Blackboard Course Home Page. From there, locate the Skill Builder link in the left navigation pane.

Assignment Task Part 1

Post a very brief description (1–3 sentences) of the article you found and address the following:

Describe how you think the research in the article is useful (e.g., what population is it helping? What problem is it solving?).

Using Y=f(X) +E notation, identify the independent and dependent variables.

How might the research models presented be wrong? What types of error might be present in the reported research?

Be sure to support your Main Post and Response Post with reference to the week’s Learning Resources and other scholarly evidence in APA Style.

Assignment Task Part 2

Remembering that all research has some error.

Respond to at least one colleague’s post in a 100 word-response in the following way:

Comment on how we as social change agents and critical consumers of research can balance the usefulness with the error in the research.

Do we throw the research out because of too much error, or is there something useful that it can tell us?

Assignment Task Part 1 Directions :

Use the Walden Library Course Guide and Assignment Help found in this week’s Learning Resources to search for and select a quantitative article that interests you and that has social change implications.

As you read the article, reflect on George Box’s quote in the introduction for this Discussion.

For additional support, review the Skill Builder: Independent and Dependent Variables, which you can find by navigating back to your Blackboard Course Home Page. From there, locate the Skill Builder link in the left navigation pane.

Assignment Task Part 2

Remembering that all research has some error.

Respond to at least one colleague’s post in a 100 word-response in the following way:

Comment on how we as social change agents and critical consumers of research can balance the usefulness with the error in the research.

Do we throw the research out because of too much error, or is there something useful that it can tell us?

Brenda Miller 

Initial Post RE: Discussion – Week 1

Top of Form

Research Article

The article by Yavich and Davidovich (2019), “Use of iPads in the Education of Children with Autism-Spectrum Disorder,” identifies the effects of iPads on ASD students in the areas of learning, communication, and social skills, as well as any additional negative effects. In the end, it was determined that technology such as iPads, create many positive benefits for ASD students, educationally and socially, but there is also the possibility of negative effects such as obsession and outbursts (Yavich & Davidoch, 2019).

Who and How it Helps

This research will help parents and educators identify possible technological advancements for helping ASD students be more successful in and out of the classroom. In addition, it will create a better understanding of the positive and negative effects of iPads and aid them in making decisions about the further use of technology with this population of students.

Independent and Dependent Variables

In this research the Independent Variable (X) is the use of the iPads with ASD students and the Dependent Variable (Y) is the positive and/or negative effects the iPads have on the students.

Errors

The research model presented may be inaccurate due to human error. One specific example from this study involved the questionnaire used, and the imbalance of female and male participants. Out of 100 participants, 95 were female and 5 were male. The wording of the questionnaire can affect how different genders respond by influencing their perception. According to Dietz and Kalof (2009) various types of mistakes are simply different ways of looking at the same problem. In addition, the researchers acknowledged that they had difficulty finding participants that were qualified in special education to complete the questionnaire. By including participants that are not certified or properly trained for working with special education students, especially ASD students, this creates greater room for error. This is why it is critical to create data collection methods that are clear, concise, and succinct.

Resources

Dietz, T., & Kalof, L. (2009). Introduction to social statistics: The logic of statistical reasoning. West Sussex, United Kingdom: Wiley-Blackwell.

Yavich, R., & Davidovich, N. (2019). Use of iPads in the education of children with Autism-Spectrum Disorder. Higher Education Studies, 9(4), 214-225. https://doi.org/10.5539/hes.v9n4p214

Bottom of Form

Read this article listed in the Learning Resources: Turner, K., & Lehning, A. J. (2007). Psychological theories of poverty. Journal of Human Behavior in the Social Environment, 16(1–2), 57–72. https://doi.org/10.1300/J137v16n01_05

Select a theory under the individual-related theories and a theory under the structural/cultural-related theories.

Complete the handout “Comparing Individual-Related and Structural/Cultural-Related Theories” to help you craft your response. (Note: You do not need to upload the handout to the Discussion forum. The handout is intended to assist you in writing your Discussion post.)

By Day 3

Post a response to the following:

Describe how a social worker would conceptualize a presenting problem related to structural issues or barriers that contribute to a client’s marginalization using the two theories you selected.

Explain how this conceptualization differs from an individual-related versus a structural/cultural-related theoretical lens.

Compare how the two theoretical lenses differ in terms of how the social worker would approach the client and the problem and how the social worker would intervene.

By Day 5

Respond to at least two colleagues:

Identify one strength and one limitation your colleague may encounter when employing an individual-related theory and a structural/cultural-related theory to formulating interventions for structural issues or barriers that contribute to a client’s marginalization.

For this homework assignment, you will consider the complete a series of mathematics problems to test your knowledge of death rate calculations. You will complete problems from each chapter as listed below:

Chapter 7 Test (p. 128); Question 14

Chapter 9 Test (pp. 172-173); Question 12 and 22

Your full homework should be complete in detail within a Word document with all work used to complete the problem demonstrated in clear detail. All work must be presented to receive full credit, and please label each question. APA is not a requirement for this assignment.